What are the acceptable values of mean squared percentage error in load forecasting in neural network?

In load forecasting using nntool, mse value of 38 is obtained.

Is there any allowable range of mse in load forecasting?If so,then what is the allowable values of mse in load forecasting?

Answer 1

[Greg Heath]

The simplest model for a neural net reference is just assuming that the output is a constant. The minimum MSE occurs when that constant is the target mean and MSE is the average target variance. Using that as a reference for more complex models yields

     OUTref = mean(target')'
     MSEref = mean(var(target',0))

the resulting normalized MSE for the general case is

        NMSE = MSE/MSEref

The typical range is

         0 <= NMSE <= 1

My typical goal for the hundreds of examples that I have posted is

           NMSEgoal <= 0.01

or, for those familiar with the Rsquared parameter

         0 <= Rsquared = 1-NMSE <= 0.99

Hope this helps

Greg