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Estimate Transition Probabilities

Estimate change in credit quality, model transition probabilities from credit rating data

Transition probabilities offer a way to characterize the past changes in credit quality of obligors (typically firms), and are cardinal inputs to many risk management applications. Financial Toolbox™ supports the estimation of transition probabilities using both cohort and duration (also known as hazard rate or intensity) approaches using transprob and related functions.


transprobEstimate transition probabilities from credit ratings data
transprobbytotalsEstimate transition probabilities using totals structure input
transprobgrouptotalsAggregate credit ratings information into fewer rating categories
transprobprepPreprocess credit ratings data to estimate transition probabilities


Estimation of Transition Probabilities

Use estimation transition probabilities to evaluate credit migration histories.

Visualize Transitions Data for transprob

This example shows how to visualize credit rating transitions that are used as an input to the transprob function.

Credit Quality Thresholds

Use transition probabilities by transforming them into credit quality thresholds.

Credit Rating by Bagging Decision Trees

This example shows how to build an automated credit rating tool.

Forecasting Corporate Default Rates

This example shows how to build a forecasting model for corporate default rates.